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China Demand, Runs To Remain Constrained Through 1Q: Energy Aspects

OIL

Chinese oil demand and refinery runs are expected to remain constrained through 1Q23 due to covid-19 curbs, according to Energy Aspects.

  • November/December run rates are estimated to be reduced by 300kb/d, and demand by 200kb/d.
  • 4Q22 oil demand is expected to rise by 340kb/d on the quarter, down by 120kb/d from previous estimates.
  • Demand is estimated to remain low in 1Q, before increasing to 15mb/d in 2Q, as most mobility curbs are expected to be lifted from April.
  • China lifted some curbs earlier this month, but officials are unlikely to lift measures during winter without widespread vaccine penetration, according to an analyst from Energy Aspects.

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