China Highlights

826mn domestic trips were made in the Golden Week holiday window, representing a 4.1% increase vs. ’19 levels. Still, that number was shy of the pre-holiday projection provided by the country’s tourism ministry (just under 900mn).

• These numbers add some sway to the economic stabilisation case re: China, although they were not overwhelmingly ‘strong,’ and seem to be less encouraging when compared to the Labour Day/Dragon Boat festival equivalents seen earlier this year.
• Vortexa expect China oil product exports to remain strong October supported by firm export margins, sufficient remaining export allowances and the potential to convert some remaining LSFO quotas for CPP.
• Vortexa figures showed China oil product export ramping up in July and rising both in August and September.
• “102 vessels are headed to China, declining by seven since last week” according to Bloomberg.
• China traffic levels have halved w/w due to subdued levels during China’s Golden Week.
• Headlines have crossed from the Washington Post that US President Biden and China President Xi Jinping are likely to meet in the US next month – the first face to face meeting between the two leaders since last November,
• JP Morgan revised its GDP growth target for China higher this week at 5.0% for 2023 (previously 4.8%) and 4.4% for 2024 (previously 4.2%.) after indications the economic slowdown has bottomed out.
• China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose by 0.5 points to 50.2 expansionary level in September, above the breakeven 50 mark for the first time in six months according to NBS statistics. The production and new orders sub-indices recorded 52.7 and 50.5, up 0.8 and 0.3pp from the previous month, indicating accelerated manufacturing activities as demand gradually recovers.