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China Markets Return, USD/CNH Finds Selling Above 6.7700

CNH

The focus returns to China markets this week, as onshore markets re-open following last week's LNY break. USD/CNH saw increased volatility through the tail end of last week, as Hong Kong markets returned. The pair spent most of Friday's session on the front foot, with an early dip towards 6.7200 not sustained. We found selling interest above 6.7700 in the NY session. We were last at 6.7575/80 this morning.

  • The data calendar is empty today, but PMI prints are due tomorrow. The market is expecting a sharp improvement in manufacturing and non-manufacturing sentiment.
  • The anecdotes from the LNY period point to improved spending in terms of box office receipts and hotel bookings, although official data showed activity was still down on the 2019 LNY period (domestic trips 88.6% of 2019 levels, tourism revenue 73%).
  • The China Dragon index slipped -0.28% in US trading on Friday, but still finished the week up an impressive 4.79%. China shares are expected to open firmer today onshore.
  • This should support CNH sentiment, with northbound equity flows off to a strong start in 2023 (119bn yuan so far).
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