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China Oil Product Demand Growth to Fall to 1.7% in 2024: Sinopec

OIL

Sinopec expects China’s oil product demand growth to ease to 1.7% in 2024 from the post-Covid demand boost to 16.1% in 2023, according to Bloomberg.

  • Gasoline demand growth is forecast at 1.6% compared with 23% and diesel flat vs 3.1% and jet fuel at 11.1 compared to 96.5% in 2023.
  • Refining volumes are expected to increase 3% in 2024 to 765m tons after 10% this year to 745m tons.
  • China’s oil consumption is projected to peak around 2027 at 800m tons (about 16mb/d) and drop sharply from 2030 according to an official at the Sinopec Economics and Development Research Institute. A shorter plateau period for demand is partly due to faster-than-expected expansion in the new energy vehicle sector with transport oil demand to peak at approximately 400m tons by about 2025.
  • Oil demand in China is estimated at 760m tons this year according to Reuters.

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