China’s Oil Demand Growth to Slow to 1% This Year

China’s oil demand is expected to grow by 1% this year to 764mn tons, according to a CNPC report.

• Oil demand growth is expected to slow this year as the post-pandemic recovery fades, while electric vehicle sales are expected to replace more than 20mn tons of fuel.
• Domestic oil products demand is estimated to rise by 0.3% to 400mn tons this year.
• By product, gasoline demand is forecast to rise by 1.3% in 2024, diesel demand is estimated to decline by 2.8% and kerosene demand is seen to rise by 13.1%.
• CNPC also expects a 50mn tons surplus of refined products this year, 10% higher than in 2023.
• Crude output is forecast at 200mn tons this year, down from 209.9mn tons last year.
• Crude processing volumes are forecast to rise by 1.8% on the year to 752mn tons. Volumes rose by 9.3% year on year in 2023.
• Domestic production of refined product is estimated to rise by 1.6% to 451mn tons.
• Total refining capacity is seen to rise to 961m tons this year, up from 924mn tons last year. as two mega-complexes are expected come online this year.