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OIL PRODUCTS: China’s Oil Product Demand to Decline by 2% in 2025: CNPC

OIL PRODUCTS
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China's oil product demand is projected to decline to 382m mt in 2025, with a slower reduction rate of 1.9% year over year, compared to 2.4% in 2024, CNPC's Economic & Technology Research Institute said Jan. 21 cited by Platts

  • This decline is driven by the rise of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and LNG heavy trucks, displacing 38m mt of gasoline demand and 28m-30m mt of gasoil demand respectively.
  • Despite this, government stimulus measures should support a 10% growth in road transportation, partially offsetting falling gasoline demand, set to fall 3.4% to 153m mt.
  • Gasoil demand is expected to fall 3% to 186m mt. Jet fuel demand is seen up 8.9% to 43.4m mt.
  • Crude throughput is seen rising 2.5% to 734m mt, supported by macroeconomic policies.
  • China's refining capacity is seen hitting 951m mtpa in 2025, peaking at 980m mtpa by 2028.
  • Oil product production is seen down 0.7% to 422m mt, producing a 40m mt supply surplus, likely for export.
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China's oil product demand is projected to decline to 382m mt in 2025, with a slower reduction rate of 1.9% year over year, compared to 2.4% in 2024, CNPC's Economic & Technology Research Institute said Jan. 21 cited by Platts

  • This decline is driven by the rise of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and LNG heavy trucks, displacing 38m mt of gasoline demand and 28m-30m mt of gasoil demand respectively.
  • Despite this, government stimulus measures should support a 10% growth in road transportation, partially offsetting falling gasoline demand, set to fall 3.4% to 153m mt.
  • Gasoil demand is expected to fall 3% to 186m mt. Jet fuel demand is seen up 8.9% to 43.4m mt.
  • Crude throughput is seen rising 2.5% to 734m mt, supported by macroeconomic policies.
  • China's refining capacity is seen hitting 951m mtpa in 2025, peaking at 980m mtpa by 2028.
  • Oil product production is seen down 0.7% to 422m mt, producing a 40m mt supply surplus, likely for export.