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CHINA RATES: Chinese swaps are showing some bounce potential in line with the
stabilization in equity markets, with the 1-year swap currently trading at
2.8750% and threatening to break above steeply sloping downtrend resistance at
- As policymakers look to boost fiscal spending in the second half of the year
and rely less on monetary policy, this should create the fundamental backdrop
for a drift higher in rates.
- However, with the 120-day rolling correlation between 1-year swaps and the CSI
300 at a near-record high 0.92, the performance of the equity market is likely
to dominate rate movements in the near term.