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CHP's Imamoglu Leads In Latest Istanbul Poll Ahead Of 31 Mar Elections

TURKEY
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timePolitical RiskPolitical Risk BulletBulletEmerging Market NewsPolitical Market News

The latest opinion poll ahead of the 31 March mayoral election in Turkey's largest city, Istanbul, shows incumbent Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu widening his lead over his main challenger. Shoudl the poll be reflected in the final result it would come as a boost to Turkish opposition parties and a blow to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan given that the president has been by-and-large the face of the local elections campaign.

  • Metropoll: Ekrem Imamoglu (CHP): 48.6% (+0.7), Murat Kurum (AKP & MHP): 37.0% (-0.2), Meral Bestas (DEM): 4.1% (+0.1), Mehmet Altinoz (YRP): 3.3% (+0.3), Fieldwork: 24-26 March, Chgs w. 15-18 March, 2,100 respondents, Don't knows/undecided removed.
  • Gaining back control of he mayoralties of Istanbul and Ankara (and to a lesser extent Izmir) has been seen as something of a personal crusade for Erdgoan, given that the opposition controlling Turkey's three largest cities deals a blow to the 'father of the nation' image his party has constructed in recent years.
  • As the BBC notes: "Although the opposition lost against Erdogan in last year's presidential election, there is still a strong link between winning Istanbul and winning Turkey," says Seda Demiralp, professor of political science at the city's Isik University."If Imamoglu manages to keep Istanbul, the opposition will still have high hopes for the upcoming 2028 presidential elections."
  • For more information and analysis on the implications of the 31 March local elections please see our Election Breifing PDF below:

MNIPOLITICALRISK-TurkeyLocalElectionBriefing.pdf

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The latest opinion poll ahead of the 31 March mayoral election in Turkey's largest city, Istanbul, shows incumbent Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu widening his lead over his main challenger. Shoudl the poll be reflected in the final result it would come as a boost to Turkish opposition parties and a blow to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan given that the president has been by-and-large the face of the local elections campaign.

  • Metropoll: Ekrem Imamoglu (CHP): 48.6% (+0.7), Murat Kurum (AKP & MHP): 37.0% (-0.2), Meral Bestas (DEM): 4.1% (+0.1), Mehmet Altinoz (YRP): 3.3% (+0.3), Fieldwork: 24-26 March, Chgs w. 15-18 March, 2,100 respondents, Don't knows/undecided removed.
  • Gaining back control of he mayoralties of Istanbul and Ankara (and to a lesser extent Izmir) has been seen as something of a personal crusade for Erdgoan, given that the opposition controlling Turkey's three largest cities deals a blow to the 'father of the nation' image his party has constructed in recent years.
  • As the BBC notes: "Although the opposition lost against Erdogan in last year's presidential election, there is still a strong link between winning Istanbul and winning Turkey," says Seda Demiralp, professor of political science at the city's Isik University."If Imamoglu manages to keep Istanbul, the opposition will still have high hopes for the upcoming 2028 presidential elections."
  • For more information and analysis on the implications of the 31 March local elections please see our Election Breifing PDF below:

MNIPOLITICALRISK-TurkeyLocalElectionBriefing.pdf