Christian Schulz at Citi looks at the.......>

GERMANY: Christian Schulz at Citi looks at the various election scenarios should

the SPD members reject the coalition when the result is announced on 4 March.

Citi's baseline scenario is that Merkel will get through the 4 March vote but...

- If SPD members reject the coalition and Merkel refuses to run a minority

government "Germany will be heading for new elections. Voters look unlikely to

break the deadlock, so Merkel's resignation would be the most likely exit from

the 'Nein' circularity."

- Schulz believe that Merkel's proposal to appoint Annegret Kramp-Karrenburger

as the CDU's Party Secretary "could become very important. A very strong result

at the party conference would establish her as Merkel's successor and should

limit any uncertainty after 4 March or new elections."