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Christian Schulz at Citi looks at the.......>

GERMANY
GERMANY: Christian Schulz at Citi looks at the various election scenarios should
the SPD members reject the coalition when the result is announced on 4 March.
Citi's baseline scenario is that Merkel will get through the 4 March vote but...
- If SPD members reject the coalition and Merkel refuses to run a minority
government "Germany will be heading for new elections. Voters look unlikely to
break the deadlock, so Merkel's resignation would be the most likely exit from
the 'Nein' circularity."
- Schulz believe that Merkel's proposal to appoint Annegret Kramp-Karrenburger
as the CDU's Party Secretary "could become very important. A very strong result
at the party conference would establish her as Merkel's successor and should
limit any uncertainty after 4 March or new elections."
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