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CIBC On Budget Issuance Implications

CANADA
  • Total issuance is projected to be down -17% at C$212B (C$207B excl Green bond) with gross supply lower in every sector except for 2yrs.
  • In favour of steeper ASW/spread curve: Net-supply should rise given our expectation that the BoC will announce it is entering QT next week, which we now believe also means a total cessation of primary purchases. But not all sectors will experience the same shift – the 5yr sector will see the largest increase in net-supply (+50%) while the 30yr sector will see an outright decline (-7%)
  • Calculate that in FY 21/22, the private sector only had to take up an additional C$63.5B in GOC bonds over what had matured in their holdings and that this will rise to C$116B this year.
  • Benchmark premia should slow in the 2s and speed up in the 10s.
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