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CIBC On Upcoming CPI Report

CANADA
  • Released on Tuesday at 0830ET, CIBC see headline CPI inflation looking “a lot tamer” in May at 3.3% Y/Y for the lowest since Jun’21, “mainly because of base effects as gasoline prices this year are compared to the peaks seen in 2022.”
  • Core measures of inflation likely saw little progress, with ex food/energy expected to decelerate more modestly to 4.0% Y/Y, versus 4.3% in the previous month.
  • Headline inflation could ease slightly further in June, but during 2H23 and into 2024 could get stuck in a range close to 3%, even if gasoline prices don’t rise materially from here.
  • On new weights: “The reweighting of the inflation basket, which increases the weight of services such as air transport and travel tours, could bring a slightly stronger monthly price increase in May compared to the old weights.”
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