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Citi Recommend Receiving Aug BoE-Dated OIS

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Citi note that “a “finely balanced” BoE decision feels like a strong signal for a first cut in August, but the market seems wary.”

  • “A degree of hesitancy may remain until the price/wage data in mid-July, but it does feel like a forward-looking majority, less sensitive to spot data, is now very close.”
  • “Our inclination is to take the signal at face value and receive August MPC SONIA.”
  • “More broadly, the dovish BoE reinforces our existing preference for bullish medium-term exposure to the GBP front end and long end steepening.”
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Citi note that “a “finely balanced” BoE decision feels like a strong signal for a first cut in August, but the market seems wary.”

  • “A degree of hesitancy may remain until the price/wage data in mid-July, but it does feel like a forward-looking majority, less sensitive to spot data, is now very close.”
  • “Our inclination is to take the signal at face value and receive August MPC SONIA.”
  • “More broadly, the dovish BoE reinforces our existing preference for bullish medium-term exposure to the GBP front end and long end steepening.”