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Mini S&P is approaching record high

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  • Citi see no change to Banxico rates next week, and write that the tone of the statement may lie on the hawkish side.
  • While Board members remain on high alert, Citi believe they will continue to send a unanimous message that they are looking through the recent bad inflation prints and keep referring to current pressures as temporary.
  • While Citi do not discard a dissenting voice opting for a 25bp hike, they think this may shift hiking expectations forwards, and believe this is something Board members are well aware of and would rather prevent.
  • As such, Citi remain of the view that the o/n rate will remain on hold at 4% throughout 2021 and most of 2022, although we also think risks of earlier hikes (still in 2022) are on the table.