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Citi Survey Analysts Expect December Cut, Aggregate Supply & Demand Data

MEXICO
  • On Tuesday, Citi published the results of its latest bi-weekly analyst survey where inflation estimates for year-end 2023 &2024 were very moderately revised down to 4.99% and 4.00% respectively. The next rate move is expected to come in December with a 25bp cut to the overnight rate. Further details included:
    • Next rate move to be a 25 bps cut in Dec 2023
    • 2023 year-end inflation cut to 4.99% from 5.00%
    • 2024 year-end inflation cut to 4.00% from 4.01%
    • 2023 GDP raised to 2.20% from 2.00%, 2024 GDP cut to 1.50% from 1.70%
    • 2023 year-end rate held at 11.00%, 2024 year-end rate held at 8.50%
    • 2023 year-end exchange rate lowered to 18.32 from 18.70
    • 2024 year-end exchange rate lowered to 19.28 from 19.90
  • Mexico is seen posting 4.2% growth in aggregate first-quarter supply and demand, up from 4.1% during the previous three months with the data being released at 1300BST/0800ET.
  • Focus turns to Thursday’s bi-weekly CPI data and Banxico decision. Perhaps the most straightforward LatAm central bank decision of the week, the committee are very much expected to stay on hold, maintaining the key rate at 11.25%.
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