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Citi Towards High End Of CPI Consensus

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Citi forecast core CPI at 0.46% M/M based on continued strength from key services but also a pick-up in core goods prices and used cars in particular (seen +0.8% M/M albeit with downside risks from negative seasonal factors after -1.9% in Jan).
  • They see moderation to still solid primary rents (0.70%) and OER (0.63%) with further slowing in shelter prices into March if realized, although risk overestimating how quickly shelter prices can ease.
  • Other non-shelter services should be strong overall, although with a continued drag from the medical insurance component in CPI which isn’t included in PCE inflation.
  • Headline CPI seen softer at 0.4% M/M due to a retracement in utility gas prices.
  • They will pay attention to PPI components of various medical services prices, airfares and financial services prices that matter more for PCE.
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