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US DATA: Claims Surprise Higher, Seasonal Noise But Still High In NSA Terms

US DATA
USEM BulletFixed Income BulletsData BulletBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange BulletsNorth America
  • Initial jobless claims were firmly higher than expected at 242k (sa, cons 220k) in the week to Dec 7 after a marginally upward revised 225k (initial 224k).
  • That’s the highest single week since Oct 12 although the four-week average saw a more muted 5k increase to 224k away from recent lows of 218/219k having been exactly in line with the 2019 average.
  • There are widespread contributions behind the large 99k increase in the NSA data: California (+14.8k), Texas (+9.5k), NY (+9.2k), Illinois (+7.5k) and Georgia (+5.8k).
  • Continuing claims were also higher than expected but to less extent, rising to 1886k (sa, cons 1877k) in the week to Nov 30 after an unrevised 1871k.
  • That sees them just below the three-year highs of 1898/1897k seen in mid-November.
  • Seasonal adjustment factors for both initial and continuing claims are likely still having difficulty in the post-Thanksgiving period although the outright level of NSA claims is on the high side for the time of year for both. 
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  • Initial jobless claims were firmly higher than expected at 242k (sa, cons 220k) in the week to Dec 7 after a marginally upward revised 225k (initial 224k).
  • That’s the highest single week since Oct 12 although the four-week average saw a more muted 5k increase to 224k away from recent lows of 218/219k having been exactly in line with the 2019 average.
  • There are widespread contributions behind the large 99k increase in the NSA data: California (+14.8k), Texas (+9.5k), NY (+9.2k), Illinois (+7.5k) and Georgia (+5.8k).
  • Continuing claims were also higher than expected but to less extent, rising to 1886k (sa, cons 1877k) in the week to Nov 30 after an unrevised 1871k.
  • That sees them just below the three-year highs of 1898/1897k seen in mid-November.
  • Seasonal adjustment factors for both initial and continuing claims are likely still having difficulty in the post-Thanksgiving period although the outright level of NSA claims is on the high side for the time of year for both.