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Cleveland Fed Core CPI Tracking 0.34% M/M For Tuesday

  • Looking to Tuesday's CPI release, the Cleveland Fed core CPI nowcast pencils in 0.34% M/M for a 0.02pp decline from its previous estimate. Bloomberg consensus has 0.3%.
  • The nowcast was reasonably accurate last month for September, overshooting by 0.04pps but it followed a recent string of large overshooting including an average 0.26pps in June and July.
  • It last undershot a core CPI outturn back in Sep’22, since which it has overshot by an average 0.11pps (one very tentative theory being that may not have fully captured the health insurance reset lower in Oct’22 that will again be reset this October).
  • Headline CPI is seen slowing to just 0.07 % M/M.

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