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Cleveland Fed Nowcast Puts Core CPI At 0.46% After Recent Overshoots

US
  • The upward revisions to the latest three months of core CPI have helped defend the Cleveland Fed Nowcast's reliability.
  • It still overshot Oct and Nov readings by 0.2pps but was less eye-catching than the original 0.3pps, before a smaller 0.08pp overshoot of Dec’s realized 0.40% M/M.
  • For January, the core nowcast eases very slightly from 0.48 to 0.46% M/M whilst headline is seen bouncing to 0.63% M/M from 0.12% M/M (coincidentally where headline CPI has since been revised to from -0.1% prior).


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