Detailed Swiss July Data Suggests Lower Services Price Pressure

Swiss July Headline CPI came in in line with both expectations and June's print at 1.3% Y/Y. Looking at the data in more detail, it appears that there was a relatively broad-based decrease in pressures in the services categories (overall services 2.2% Y/Y vs 2.4% prior) - pp contributions to headline decreased in all of healthcare, transport, communication, and recreation, and only increased in the hospitality category.

• While the decreases in contributions were helped by volatile package holidays (6.0%Y/Y to 4.2%Y/Y), they support the view that inflationary pressures decreased slightly this month compared to last month.
• We note that there was a Taylor Swift concert in Zurich on 10 July and this may have led to some upward pressure on the hospitality category (as we have seen in some other European countries such as Portugal and Sweden). Data is collected for Swiss CPI in the first half of the month but there are no exact dates given.
• Stronger contributions from goods-heavy categories partly outweighed these increases. Note that the SNB appears to have put less weight on the goods categories in their assessment of inflationary pressures in recent times.