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Free AccessClose Below 28.00 Still Elusive
USD/TWD last at 27.994, still below the 28.00 handle intraday but refusing to close below the level amid rumoured CB intervention.
- Data after the Asia close yesterday showed industrial Production Y/Y at 9.9% vs 6.0% expected. Citi Economics highlighted in their forecast that the earlier December release suggests manufacturing strength has extended beyond typical seasonal year-end demand. Manufacturing resiliency is also observed from the latest PMI (which climbed by another 2.5pt to 59.4) and two consecutive months of above 30% Y/Y export order growth.
- Money supply data was also released. The M1B gauge rose 16.17% Y/Y in December, the fastest pace since May 2010 driven by net capital inflows and accelerated expansion in bank loans and investments.
- Meanwhile car executives are seeking government help in a bid to see if the supply of chips, — that do everything from controlling power steering to anti-lock brakes, can be sped up which could help support the Taiex further as electronics drive export strength.
- Covid concerns continue to weigh in Taiwan, despite the relatively small number of cases. TSMC has announced tighter measures to stop the spread of the virus after a cluster was discovered at Taoyuan General Hospital.
- Markets now look to the US and the stance of the Biden administration on its relations with Taiwan and China. The US State Dept issued a statement over the weekend which affirmed its stance towards Taiwan and encouraged a dialogue with Beijing.
- Forwards have risen from a month ago in longer tenors, while the 1-month forward has declined to 27.919 from 27.958.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.