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Close To Calling An End To $-Bloc Tightening

STIR

The STIR markets in the $-Bloc are close to calling an end to the tightening cycle, following the expected 25bp hike by the RBNZ on May 24. This expectation firmed after positive compositional signs in the US CPI release for April, which met expectations with both headline and core ex-food & energy measures increasing by 0.4% m/m. While goods prices were driven up by used cars, which is not expected to continue, rent and services prices excluding housing and energy showed an improvement.

  • Projected Fed rate cuts for late 2023 / early 2024 firmed with 81bp priced by Dec’23 and 102bp by Jan’24.
  • Year-end easing expectations in CA, AU and NZ sit at a more modest 25-30bp.

Figure 1: $-Bloc STIR



Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg

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