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Closing In On Three Cuts In 2024, Schmid Still Ahead

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have shunted higher today along with the broader FI sell-off, under little fresh macro news flow.
  • One of the more eye-catching points is that the 78bp of cuts priced for 2024 is back close to early Friday lows, the closest it’s been to meeting the three cuts pencilled in by the median FOMC participant at the Dec SEP.
  • KC Fed’s Schmid (’25 voter) is the sole scheduled speaker today, late on at 1940ET on the economic and policy outlook incl text. These should be the first mon pol relevant remarks since his appointment in August.
  • Tomorrow then sees more notable data including preliminary durable goods and the Conference Board consumer survey, remembering that it saw a surprise shunt higher in the labor differential last month which ending up boding well for the January payrolls report.

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