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CLP Remains On Front Foot Despite Lower-Than-Expected CPI

CHILE
  • The Chilean peso performed well yesterday, supported by the downtick in the broad US dollar and the further rise in copper prices. The peso rallied by 0.5% against USD, bringing USDCLP down to 944. Support to watch remains at 935.63, the Mar 15 low, a clear break of which would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for an extension towards 922.80 initially.
  • BBVA, however, continue to see pressure on the currency, as the low rates make the CLP more of a funding than a carry plan. With USDCLP also back around 940, a level where the cross bounced previously, they believe that asymmetry may be biased for a higher USDCLP from these levels.
  • On the data front, no macro data are due today, with the next release being tomorrow’s BCCh economist survey. Yesterday’s trade data showed that the trade surplus remains robust, with the one-year rolling balance coming in at $14.9bn. On the import side, although consumer goods imports are slowly recovering, capital goods imports stayed weak, suggesting that overall domestic demand remains soft. Going forward, Itaú expect exports to pick up, driven by mining exports, while energy imports are also set to rise. Overall, they expect a manageable CAD of just below 4% of GDP this year.

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