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CNH 4Q23 Preview

CAPITAL GOODS
  • Bonds 10-15 tighter YTD, in line with or tighter than industrial comps despite headwinds, leaving little room for disappointment.
  • 4Q results will be closely watched after a miss at 3Q took equity -12%. The cycle turned last year after 3 years of strong growth, with 10%+ declines on industry volumes expected in 2024.
  • Lower commodity prices and higher input costs present further headwinds.
  • The company is guiding for $1 – 1.2bn FY23 FCF, with consensus at 1.3bn.
  • Strong focus on cost savings and balance sheet strength at this point in the cycle.

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