CNH and IDR Lag, SGD Outperforms On MAS Tightening & GDP Beat

Asian FX is mostly firmer, in line with trends from the G10 space, although CNH and IDR are lagging these broader trends. SGD has outperformed on the MAS tightening and a solid Q3 GDP beat from this morning. Still to come is India wholesale inflation for September. This weekend the China once every 5-yr party congress kicks off. On Monday, the China 1yr MLF rate is expected to be left unchanged at 2.75%. Q3 GDP prints on Tuesday, along with September activity data. BI announces rates next Thursday.

• USD/CNH remained within recent ranges. We got above 7.1950, before sinking back to 7.1600, amid broad USD weakness. The pair has subsequently pushed back above 7.1800. Inflation prints argue for easier financial conditions in China, while more elevated covid case numbers are likely weighing at the margin.
• USD/KRW is back lower, spot hitting close to the 1425 level, before edging back up to 1427.50. Onshore equities are up firmly, +2.5% to 2215/20. The authorities warned against one-sided/herd behaviour in markets after last night's CPI print.
• USD/INR opened lower but couldn't sustain levels sub 82.20 and we are now back above 82.30. Moves above 82.40 continue to draw selling interest, so we have seen some recovery in the INR NEER. Coming up is wholesale inflation data for September, along with the RBI minutes from the last policy meeting.
• USD/SGD is down around 0.60% from NY closing levels, after the MAS tightened policy further. The move was less aggressive than some in the market expected. However, the outcome, coupled with a strong rebound in Q3 GDP (+1.5%) has driven outperformance. The pair last traded just above 1.4220.
• Spot USD/IDR has added 26 figs and last deals at 15,388, with topside technical focus falling on the 61.8% retracement of the 2020 sell-off/Apr 23, 2020 high at 15,574/15,598. Bank Indonesia will announce the outcome of its monetary policy review next Thursday. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg so far are almost evenly split, with 5 expecting a 25bp rate rise and 6 looking for a 50bp hike.