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CNH & KRW Move Off Session Lows, THB Outperforms

ASIA FX

USD/Asia pairs have been mixed. A recovery in equity sentiment has helped CNH and KRW move away from session lows. THB has outperformed post Sunday's election result, while PHP and IDR have been laggards. Still to come today is Indian wholesale prices and trade balance, both for Apr. The focus tomorrow will largely rest on April activity figures in China.

  • USD/CNH got to fresh highs of 6.9750, but has stabilized this afternoon, as onshore equities have improved. The pair was last at 6.9660/70. Equities have recovered from steeper losses in the first part of the session. As expected, the 1yr MLF rate was left unchanged at 2.75%, while the USD/CNY fixing was neutral.
  • 1 month USD/KRW has moved lower this afternoon, last near 1333. Some positive carry over from higher AUD and NZD levels has helped, while a recovering equity backdrop has also been positive. This is comfortably away from Friday session highs above 1340 for the pair.
  • USD/THB was down sharply in the first part of trade, post Sunday's election outcome. The pair last tracked in the 33.70/75 region, around 0.80% firmer in baht terms versus Friday's closing levels. This is all the more impressive given broad USD gains through Friday's session. We have since stabilised somewhat, last near 33.77. Local equities are weaker, -0.65%. Still, there is hope that a new government can be formed with a pro-growth agenda.
  • USD/PHP sits just above 55.95 currently, down slightly from session highs above 55.99. The main focus has been on earlier comments from BSP Governor Medalla that the central bank may keep rates unchanged at the May 18 meeting (this Thursday). Finance Secretary who also sits on the BSP board stated he would vote for a pause at this week's meeting. For USD/PHP, the pair hasn't been to sustain gains above 56.00 recently. Note the 200-day MA is at 56.10.
  • USD/IDR has pressed higher today, but this is line with the USD gains post the onshore close from Friday. We were last at 14820, around +0.50% above Friday closing levels.. The 1 month NDF is slightly lower versus NY closing levels though, last 14835/40. We are at fresh highs for the month though in terms of USD/IDR spot. Late April highs in the pair came in around 14930/35. Still elevated US real yields and weaker commodity prices continue to weigh on IDR. Palm oil prices are only a touch above recent lows.
  • The SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) is little changed in early dealing today. The measure ticked lower late last week after printing its highest level since mid March. We now sit ~0.9% below the top of the band. USD/SGD firmed today printing its highest level 21 March this morning and last prints at $1.3390/1.3400. The pair has continued to tick away from its 20-Day EMA ($1.3321) after breaking above the measure last week, Bulls look to target high from March 10 at $1.3576. Bears first target the low from 14 April at $1.3204.

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