CNH & KRW Stabilize, THB Outperforms

USD/CNH has edged lower today, while 1 month USD/KRW has moved off recent highs. THB has been an outperformer thanks to a bumper trade surplus result. Trends are mixed elsewhere. Tomorrow early on we get South Korean business sentiment readings, followed by China Mar Industrial Profits later. Singapore's unemployment rate also prints.

• USD/CNH has spent most of the session sub 6.9400. We did spike following a firmer than expected USD/CNY fix, but this was short lived. Better HK equity sentiment has helped at the margins, while North Bound stock connect flows are positive so far today, the first inflow since last Thursday if it is maintained. Lows were at 6.9275, we last track at 6.9320/30.
• 1 month USD/KRW has stayed away from NY session highs above 1340, but has failed to see much downside, beyond the 1334/35 region. The focus remains on Yoon's US trip, while earlier consumer sentiment continued to recover and inflation expectations eased.
• Indonesian markets have returned from a 5-day break. The early impetus to spot USD/IDR is to the topside. After closing last Tuesday at 14845, we pushed to 14920/25 in the first part of trade, around 0.50% weaker in IDR terms, before selling interest emerged. The pair was last back close to 14890. In terms of drivers of this weaker IDR trend, most other USD/Asia pairs are higher in the period Indonesian markets have been shut, so USD/IDR will also be seeing some spill over from that.
• The SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) printed its lowest level since 15 March this morning, post the April MAS meeting the measure continues to move lower dealing in narrow ranges. We now sit ~1.2% below the top of the band. USD/SGD continues to follow broad USD trends. The pair printed its highest level since March 21 yesterday and has marginally pared gains to sit at $1.3375/85. Mar IP was stronger than expected, -4.2% y/y (-6.1% forecast).
• USD/MYR prints just above 4.4600, the pair printed its highest level since March 22 (4.4653) in early dealing before moderating gains. Falling Palm Oil prices have weighed on the ringgit in recent trading, with prices down ~5% since April 18th. The pair now sits above its 20- and 200-Day EMAs as the technical picture becomes bullish. Bulls can target year to date highs at 4.5317. Bears first look to break the 20-Day EMA (4.4299) to turn the tide.
• March Thai trade figures have come in much stronger than expected from a trade surplus standpoint. We printed at +$2.72bn versus -$1.00bn forecast. The range of estimates was -$2.9bn to $169mn. The upside surprise puts the trade surplus back to Q3 2020 levels. In turn this may reinforce THB's outperformance theme, particularly with clouds still over the global outlook. USD/THB has moved lower post the release of the trade figures, but remains within recent ranges, last at 34.26/27.
• USD/PHP is range bound in the first part of trade today, last tracking in the 55.55/60 region, slightly above yesterday's closing levels (55.54). Some support was evident sub 55.50 late yesterday, although PHP has been fairly immune to the recent USD rebound, as the authorities have renewed their focus on the FX rate in recent sessions. We sit comfortably below recent highs, with the 200-day MA at 56.11. Comments from the BSP Governor have crossed the wires today, with the Governor stating BSP has the FX reserves to use if the local FX market overreacts. Medalla also stated that the BSP won't cut rates faster than the Fed as we progress through 2023.