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CNY Consolidation Drives ZAR Higher

SOUTH AFRICA
  • German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in South Africa for talks with President Cyril Ramaphosa and will visit Sasol (BBG).
  • Yesterday, Johannesburg mayor said that the capital needs 1.6bn USD to stabilize power support by 2030.
  • The CNY consolidation in the past 10 days has led to a rebound in the rand, with USDZAR retracing by 3.5% to find support at the 15.67 level yesterday, which corresponds to the 23.6% Fibo retracement of the 13.4120 – 16.3670 range.
  • We previously saw that ZAR has been sensitive to CNY fluctuation in recent weeks, with the 3M correlation (USDZAR vs. USDCNY daily returns) breaking above 0.5 to a 4-year high (see chart).
  • Amplats and biggest unions agree to a new 5Y wage deal according to AMCU, which could be signed as early as this week (and effective from July).
    • Amplats agreed to a pay rise of 1,100 ZAR a month in the first year, which will rise to 1,500 ZAR in the fifth year (BBG).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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