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CNY Fixing In Focus Amid Fresh Depreciation Pressures

CNH

With the USD/CNH move above 6.9500 in NY trade, testing the 200-day MA, there is likely to be renewed focus on today's USD/CNY fixing. The market will be looking for signs of the authorities pushing back against renewed depreciation pressures.

  • The Reuters survey has today's fixing coming in at 6.9250. We don't have a Bloomberg consensus estimate yet. Note the onshore 4:30pm level in USD/CNY was 6.9163 yesterday (used as a fixing input), while the USD was generally firmer post the Asia close.
  • If we print at 6.9250, such an outcome would be the highest fix since mid March, when USD/CNH was threatening to break above the 7.00 handle.
  • There is room for a greater lean against depreciation pressures with the fixing bias. The 5-day rolling sum of the fixing error got to -95pips on Mar 10. We currently sit at -31pips for this metric. We also had a large downside surprise on Mar 8 -56pips.
  • USD/CNH dipped below 6.9400 in early dealings today, but is back above around level to be unchanged for the session.
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