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Coalition Talks Dominate Headlines, October CPI On Tap

POLAND
  • There have been dissonant voices from the pro-EU camp on the progress in their ongoing coalition talks. Civic Coalition's economic czar Andrzej Domanski said that a coalition agreement will likely be finalised within a week or two, but the Left's Anna Maria Zukowska said that the three parties may sign off on a comprehensive deal as late as in December, after agreeing on the distribution of ministerial portfolios and key posts. Latest press reports suggest that parliamentary newcomer Szymon Holownia might be edging ahead in the race for the Sejm Speaker position, although some have also floated the idea of rotating the post between a couple of lawmakers (a solution routinely implemented in the European Parliament). The three pro-EU parties are under pressure to finalise their talks as soon as possible and return to the Presidential Palace with a detailed plan on subsequent government formation.
  • Speaking with Polsat News yesterday, Civic Coalition's Andrzej Domanski said that he expects inflation to ease to +5.0% Y/Y by December 2024, but "we'll see if [NBP Governor Glapinski] will be obstructing our fight against inflation". His comments lend support to the claims that the disinflationary impulse may dissipate in the coming months, with price growth showing stickiness.
  • Statistics Poland will release flash October CPI readings at 09:00GMT/10:00CET, with consensus looking for another sharp decline in headline inflation rate to +6.6% Y/Y. We summarised local sell-side views here.
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