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Coca-Cola (CCEP: Baa1/NR/BBB+) 7.5Y FV

CONSUMER STAPLES
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  • exp. €500m 7.5Y IPT MS+130/135a vs. FV +90 (-40)
    • the bottler not the concentrate producer KO - who does have a 19% stake in CCEP.
    • Equal-rated brewers and spirit players below - no firm view on its curve which looks fair.

  • 1H revenue +3.5% (volume +0.6% and pricing +2.9%) while EBIT rose +9%. Net debt was €10.4b - against FY24 earnings is expected to move into target 2.5-3x (consensus EBITDA; 3x). It moved above target on the ~$1.1b/60% stake it took in Coca-Cola Beverages Philippines (take taken from KO in Feb).
  • Revenue is ~75% from Europe, 15% in Australia & Pacific and 10% in Southeast Asia. Growth in every region for 1H with particular strength in APAC.
  • FY24 guidance (all comparable growth/ex. acquisitions) is for +4% in revenue balanced by cost of sales increasing ~3%. EBIT growth expectation is firm at ~7%.
  • Q3 results come on the 5th of November

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  • exp. €500m 7.5Y IPT MS+130/135a vs. FV +90 (-40)
    • the bottler not the concentrate producer KO - who does have a 19% stake in CCEP.
    • Equal-rated brewers and spirit players below - no firm view on its curve which looks fair.

  • 1H revenue +3.5% (volume +0.6% and pricing +2.9%) while EBIT rose +9%. Net debt was €10.4b - against FY24 earnings is expected to move into target 2.5-3x (consensus EBITDA; 3x). It moved above target on the ~$1.1b/60% stake it took in Coca-Cola Beverages Philippines (take taken from KO in Feb).
  • Revenue is ~75% from Europe, 15% in Australia & Pacific and 10% in Southeast Asia. Growth in every region for 1H with particular strength in APAC.
  • FY24 guidance (all comparable growth/ex. acquisitions) is for +4% in revenue balanced by cost of sales increasing ~3%. EBIT growth expectation is firm at ~7%.
  • Q3 results come on the 5th of November