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Coface: Earnings Upgrade Likely, Equity Moving, Cash Curve Little Changed

FINANCIALS

Coface (COFA FP) equity up today but EUR credit lines only slightly tighter after good results last night and a likely earnings upgrade.


  • Coface released 4Q23 results after the close last night which were marginally ahead on revenues but with a strong combined ratio leading to a material (9%) beat at the net income level. Solvency ratio is 199% (from 192% at Jun-23)
  • At the Sep-23 stage, company had seen a real slowdown in business activity (Ukraine, Israel, commodity prices) but has accelerated again in the final quarter. FY24 outlook is for RoATE of 13.4%, similar to FY23 and this appears 1-2pp above consensus, so a good earnings upgrade is possible here.
  • A new 3Y strategic plan will be presented on 5-Mar-24.
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