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LATAM: Colombia OBR Swaps Curve Shifts Higher Amid Finance Minister Concerns

LATAM
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
  • Ahead of tomorrow’s Copom meeting, Brazilian DI swap rates have extended the move lower in the belly and long-end of the curve, with yields down by 8-9bp in a bull-flattening move. Yields around the 3-5-year segment have now fallen by over 80bp MTD.
  • The BCB is widely expected to deliver a further 100bp hike tomorrow, with focus on the guidance provided for subsequent meetings. See the full MNI preview here.
  • Earlier, the government announced its income tax exemption plans, which Finance Minister Haddad said would be fiscally neutral. Meanwhile, the Finance Ministry’s Executive Secretary, Dario Durigan, said that if Congress changes the compensation proposed for the tax reform, the government would come up with other alternatives.
  • The revenue loss with the exemption in 2026 will be BRL 25.8bn and the taxation for the richest will bring in BRL 34.1bn, he said.
  • Elsewhere, Chile camara swap rates have slightly underperformed, with yields up by around 4bp after robust Q4 GDP data support expectations for an extended BCCh pause. The central bank is expected to stay on hold at 5% this Friday.
  • Meanwhile, Colombia OBR swap rates have risen sharply, amid reports that Finance Minister Guevara is set to step down after only three months in the role. Yields have spiked by over 20bp after the unexpected news, with reports suggesting he will be replaced by Grupo Bicentenario head German Avila Plazas.
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  • Ahead of tomorrow’s Copom meeting, Brazilian DI swap rates have extended the move lower in the belly and long-end of the curve, with yields down by 8-9bp in a bull-flattening move. Yields around the 3-5-year segment have now fallen by over 80bp MTD.
  • The BCB is widely expected to deliver a further 100bp hike tomorrow, with focus on the guidance provided for subsequent meetings. See the full MNI preview here.
  • Earlier, the government announced its income tax exemption plans, which Finance Minister Haddad said would be fiscally neutral. Meanwhile, the Finance Ministry’s Executive Secretary, Dario Durigan, said that if Congress changes the compensation proposed for the tax reform, the government would come up with other alternatives.
  • The revenue loss with the exemption in 2026 will be BRL 25.8bn and the taxation for the richest will bring in BRL 34.1bn, he said.
  • Elsewhere, Chile camara swap rates have slightly underperformed, with yields up by around 4bp after robust Q4 GDP data support expectations for an extended BCCh pause. The central bank is expected to stay on hold at 5% this Friday.
  • Meanwhile, Colombia OBR swap rates have risen sharply, amid reports that Finance Minister Guevara is set to step down after only three months in the role. Yields have spiked by over 20bp after the unexpected news, with reports suggesting he will be replaced by Grupo Bicentenario head German Avila Plazas.