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Colombian Peso Remains Notably Under Pressure

COLOMBIA
  • News overnight concerning the administration’s cabinet departures has consistently weighed on the Colombian peso on Tuesday. USDCOP has risen 2.08% as of writing and represents the region’s largest currency adjustment by a significant margin.
  • Market participants will not be overly worried the three ministries in the spotlight, however, the fear that more changes may be in the pipeline may be spooking local assets.
  • One economist from BTG Pactual noted the government likely managed to prevent a larger selloff by issuing a reassurance that Finance Minister Jose Antonio Ocampo has no plans to leave.
  • A higher-than-expected unemployment rate may have provided an additional headwind for COP, with analysts noting that mild sequential employment gains fail to offset the labor force increase.
  • Itaú said they expect the average unemployment rate to reach 11.8% this year (11.2% in 2022; 10.9% in 2019) as tight monetary policy, a notable rise in the minimum wage and elevated economic policy uncertainty contribute to the weakening of the labor market.

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