Commerzbank gunning for a 20bps ECB depo cut....>

ECB: Commerzbank gunning for a 20bps ECB depo cut next week (the most dovish

outlook for that meeting among 22 sell-side analysts we track; MUFG also going

for 20bps in July).

- Also sees tiering system introduced, however restarting APP "is only likely if

the euro zone economy slides into recession, prompting new deflation fears".

- "if the ECB really wants to be perceived as proactive it will not want to risk

disappointing investors' already high expectations. On the contrary, it is

likely to surprise the market and thus underscore its ability to act by cutting

interest rates earlier and more sharply than generally expected."