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COMMODITIES: Crude, Precious Metals Fall As Geopolitical Risks Ease

COMMODITIES
  • Oil prices have slid sharply today following reports of a coming Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire within the next 36 hours.
  • WTI Jan 25 is down by 3.3% at $68.9/bbl.
  • Meanwhile, the market awaits signs of OPEC’s output plans for 2025 after previous attempts to try and bring barrels back to the market during Q4 were delayed.
  • For WTI futures, a bearish theme remains intact and attention is on $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support.
  • Spot gold has fallen by 3.5% today to $2,622/oz as some of the geopolitical risk premium surrounding the Israel-Lebanon conflict has been removed.
  • Gold had already slipped on the back President-elect Trump nominating Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary, with his policy preferences deemed less inflationary than some of the alternatives.
  • In terms of the prevailing technicals, the trend remains bullish for now. However, today’s move has brought gold through initial support at the 50-day EMA at $2,638.9, increasing the bearish threat, with next support at $2,610.5, the Nov 19 low.
  • Similarly, silver has declined by 3.3% to $30.3/oz.
  • Medium-term bullish conditions in silver remain intact and the bear cycle that started on Oct 23 still appears to be a correction.
  • However, price has recently breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs exposing $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is $31.315, the 20-day EMA.
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