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Conflicting Polls Ahead of June 19 Runoff Vote

COLOMBIA
  • Colombians will vote for their next president on June 19 in a second-round runoff between Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernandez.
    • A new poll shows leftist Senator Gustavo Petro with a wide lead. The survey by Yanhaas showed Petro with 45% support, while his rival Hernandez had 35%, according to El Tiempo newspaper. The poll of 1,234 people was conducted between June 5 and June 10 and has a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points.
    • The results contradict several other studies published in recent days, which indicated a technical tie between the two.
    • A poll by Guarumo and EcoAnalitica, also published Saturday, showed Hernandez with 48.2% support versus 46.5% for Petro, a difference that, as in other recent surveys, was within the margin of error.
  • Colombia’s long-term issuer default rating was affirmed by Fitch at BB+, one level below investment grade.
  • Long-Term Local Currency Issuer Default Rating was affirmed by Fitch at BB+, one level below investment grade
  • Outlook remains stable, the company said in a statement:
    • Colombia's ratings reflect the country's track record of macroeconomic and financial stability underpinned by an independent central bank with an inflation targeting regime and a free-floating currency.
    • Colombia's ratings are constrained by the large fiscal deficits that have resulted in a relatively larger increase in debt and interest burdens than the 'BB' median, high commodity dependence and weaker external accounts.
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