Conservative MP Pincher Resigns, Triggering Another By-Election

Conservative MP for Tamworth Christopher Pincher has resigned this morning following his suspension from the House of Commons over groping allegations. As such, a by-election will be triggered, and there is the prospect that this could take place on the same day as, or soon after, the by-election in the Conservative-held seat of Mid Bedfordshire taking place on 19 Oct following the resignation of Nadine Dorries.

• For PM Rishi Sunak and his Conservative party the timing by-elections will be unwelcome news. The seats would usually be viewed as relatively safe for the centre-right Conservatives, holding Mid Bedforshire with a majority of over 24k, and Tamworth with over 19k votes.
• If there were just one by-election taking place both the opposition centre-left Labour Party and centrist Liberal Democrats would be heavily contesting the seats, potentially allowing the Conservatives to hold both thanks to the plurality electoral system.
• However, should both take place simultaneously/in close succession, Labour and the Liberal Democrats may focus their efforts on one seat and not the other. This raises the prospect for the Conservatives of losing both seats.
• Losing both seats could push the gov't into including more 'giveaways' in the 22 November Autumn Statement in the form of tax cuts or spending increases in an effort to bolster support ahead of the next general election, likely in May or autumn 2024.