Conservatives Could Face By-Election In Heartland After MP's Bankruptcy

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's centre-right Conservative Party could face a by-election in its southern England 'blue wall' heartland after MP for Windsor Adam Afriyie was declared bankrupt by a special court earlier today. Under parliamentary rules, if a bankruptcy restriction order is made by the court then an MP is disqualified from sitting forcing a by-election. It is not clear yet whether a BRO has been made against Afriyie or not.

• Windsor, and its predecessor seat Windsor and Maidenhead, have been held by the Conservatives since 1874. At the last general election in 2019, Afriyie won with a 20k vote majority, although this was down on the 22k majority won in 2017 and 25k votes in 2015.
• Results from the most recent local election in May 2019 could prove of some concern to PM Sunak's party. The Conservatives went from holding 95% of seats on the council to 56% as the centrist Liberal Democrats made gains.
• The pro-EU Liberal Democrats have proved adept at reversing seemingly insurmountable Conservative majorities at by-elections in the party's heartlands over the past 18 months overturning majorities of 16k, 23k, and 24k. Should a by-election be forced in Windsor it would be the first major electoral test for PM Sunak.