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The governing conservative People's Party (PP) has bolstered its position as the most popular party in Madrid a month before regional elections take place o 4 May, according to the most recent opinion poll.

  • Spain (Madrid), CIS poll: PP-EPP: 39% (+17), PSOE-S&D: 25% (-2), Más Madrid-G/EFA: 15%, UP-LEFT: 9% (+3), VOX-ECR: 5% (-4), Cs-RE: 4% (-15). +/- vs. 2019 regional election. Fieldwork: 19-28 March 2021. Sample size: 4,124
  • The Madrilenian election, called early by regional president Isabel Díaz Ayuso to avoid a collapse of the previous centre-right PP-Citizen's (Cs) gov't, is being viewed as a critical one for several parties not only in the region but at the national level as well.
  • Deputy Prime Minister Pablo Iglesias, who heads up the far-left Unidos Podemos (UP) party that serves as the junior coalition partner to Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's centre-left Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), has stepped down in order to run for the Madrilenian presidency, a sign of how importantly the election is viewed by the UP.
  • The centrist Citizens run the risk of falling below the 5% electoral threshold, meaning that if it were to form a regional gov't, the PP would have to go into coalition with the right-wing nationalist VOX party.
  • Should the PP fall out of gov't in the Community of Madrid (a seat they have held since 1995) it would likely prompt the resignation or ouster of Pablo Casado, who heads the party at the national level. Similarly, if the entry of Iglesias into the race does not translate into a leftist coalition taking power in the capital, it could deal real damage to the UP, which has been engaged in frequent squabbles with the PSOE at the national level for some time.
Chart 1. Opinion Polling for Madrilenian Election

Source: Sociometrica, SyM Consulting, Sigma Dos, Celeste-Tel, CIS, Invymark, NC Report, DYM, Hamalgama Metrica, Electopanel, GAD3, Demoscopia, MNI