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Consolidating Below $1.08

AUDNZD

AUD/NZD is consolidating below the $1.08 handle. The cross tested the $1.08 level early last week but wasn't able to sustain a break higher (last around $1.0720).

  • Rate differentials, observed via 2 Year Swaps, sit at -147bps. Having firmed off cycle lows at -161bps early last week, aiding the test of $1.08, before marginally widening to current levels.
  • Technically the pair is consolidating, bears look to break 2023 lows at $1.0667 to target 2022 low at $1.0471.
  • Bulls look to break $1.0892, the 200-Day EMA, to turn the tide.
  • The next risk events for the pair are presented by Australian Feb Retail Sales (exp: 0.2%, prior: 1.9%), which is due tomorrow. On Wednesday we have Australia's Feb CPI, the print is expected at 7.2% down from the prior read of 7.4%.

Fig 1: AUD/NZD Daily Spot, EMAs

Source: MNI/Bloomberg

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