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Free AccessConsolidating Below $1.08
AUD/NZD has been consolidating in a narrow range below $1.08 after breaking below the handle early in the week.
- Rate differentials, observed via 2-Year Swaps, have widened a touch to -144bps from -130bps last week. We do remain above cycle lows of -165bps which were seen early in April.
- Technically we remain in a downtrend, having held below the 20-Day EMA bears now target the low from Apr 5 at $1.0588 a break through here opens 2022 lows at $1.0471.
- Bulls first target a break above $1.08 to target the 200-Day EMA ($1.0871).
- On the wires earlier this morning New Zealand Consumer Confidence continued to tick higher, later in the session Q1 PPI and March Private Sector Credit from Australia will cross however neither is expected to shift sentiment.
- The next major risk event is Tuesday's RBA meeting, the bank is expected to hold rates at 3.6%.
Fig 1: AUD/NZD Daily Spot, EMAs
Source: MNI/Bloomberg
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.