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Consolidating CPI Bear Flattening Ahead Of Data Deluge, 20Y Supply

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys little changed after yesterday’s CPI-induced bear flattening, tracking -1.0 to +0.2bps across the curve ahead of a deluge of data including retail sales plus 20Y supply.
  • 2YY -0.2bps at 4.614%, 5YY -1.0bps at 3.991%, 10YY -0.2bps at 3.742% and 30YY +0.2bps at 3.776%, whilst 2s10s of -86.5bps is very close to fresh multi-decade lows.
  • TYH3 trades 2+ ticks higher at 112-13 on slightly below average volumes. It cracked trendline support after CPI with yesterday’s low of 112-03 now forming initial support, whilst to the upside sits the 50-day EMA of 114-00+.
  • Data: Empire mfg Feb (0830ET), Retail sales Jan (0830ET), IP & Cap Util Jan (0915ET), NAHB Feb (1000ET), Business inventories Dec (1000ET), TIC Flows (1600ET) plus weekly MBA mortgage data (0700ET).
  • Bond issuance: US Tsy $15B 20Y Bond auction (912810TQ1) – 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $36B 17W Bill auction – 1130ET
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