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Construction Investment Suggests No Let Up In Residential Drag On GDP

CANADA DATA
  • Investment in building construction saw further heavy declines in June, down -3.1% M/M in nominal terms or -3.4% M/M in real terms. This was driven by residential construction (-4.5% M/M nominal, -4.9% M/M real).
  • Very strong price growth for both land and construction costs since the pandemic means that nominal residential construction investment is still almost 20% higher than pre-pandemic levels but in real terms it’s now more than 20% lower (and with nearly all of that decline over the past year).
  • The data imply that despite the bounce in housing starts, residential investment is likely to have remained a significant drag on real GDP growth in Q2 having already dragged -1.5pps from Y/Y growth in Q1.
  • The BoC remains heavily focused on excess demand and notable upcoming inputs here include retail sales for June on Wed (Aug 23) before Q2 GDP on Sep 1 ahead of the Sep 6 BoC decision.

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