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Consumer Confidence Bottoming Out, But It Could Hardly Be Worse

EUROZONE DATA

The Euro area Nov flash reading of consumer confidence (-23.9 vs a revised -27.5 in Oct and -26.0 expected) marked a 5-month high and points to bottoming out in sentiment.

  • But it's all relative: the indicator remains near all-time lows and has been below -20 since March, consistent with previous crisis levels (2008-09, 2012, 2020).
  • Sentiment lines up closely with the "misery" index (unemployment + inflation): this time it's inflation providing most of the drag, with the unemployment rate steady / falling.
  • When CPI starts to moderate, sentiment will probably turn higher as well. But for now the consumer confidence data merely poses the question "it can't get any worse...can it?"

Source: Eurostat, MNI

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The Euro area Nov flash reading of consumer confidence (-23.9 vs a revised -27.5 in Oct and -26.0 expected) marked a 5-month high and points to bottoming out in sentiment.

  • But it's all relative: the indicator remains near all-time lows and has been below -20 since March, consistent with previous crisis levels (2008-09, 2012, 2020).
  • Sentiment lines up closely with the "misery" index (unemployment + inflation): this time it's inflation providing most of the drag, with the unemployment rate steady / falling.
  • When CPI starts to moderate, sentiment will probably turn higher as well. But for now the consumer confidence data merely poses the question "it can't get any worse...can it?"

Source: Eurostat, MNI