November 22, 2022 15:20 GMT
The Euro area Nov flash reading of consumer confidence (-23.9 vs a revised -27.5 in Oct and -26.0 expected) marked a 5-month high and points to bottoming out in sentiment.
- But it's all relative: the indicator remains near all-time lows and has been below -20 since March, consistent with previous crisis levels (2008-09, 2012, 2020).
- Sentiment lines up closely with the "misery" index (unemployment + inflation): this time it's inflation providing most of the drag, with the unemployment rate steady / falling.
- When CPI starts to moderate, sentiment will probably turn higher as well. But for now the consumer confidence data merely poses the question "it can't get any worse...can it?"
Source: Eurostat, MNI