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Consumer Confidence Improvements As Political Landscape Stabilises

UK DATA
MNI (London)

UK GFK NOV CONSUMER CONFIDENCE -44 (FCST -46); OCT -47

  • UK consumer confidence improved by three points in November, marginally better than forecasts of a one-point uptick. The index remains close to recent historic lows.
  • The November rise was broad-based and largely resulting from a more stabilised political backdrop following the unrest associated with the previous Prime Minister and the "mini budget".
  • High energy, food and mortgage prices continue to squeeze disposable incomes. Despite downward pressure from the EPG, October recorded a 1pp surge in inflation to +11.1% y/y.
  • October is largely seen as the peak inflation month for the UK. Yet inflation levels are anticipated to remain high into early 2023 and with it, consumer confidence will likely see little grounds for improvement.
  • "Perhaps an England World Cup win will help kick off the festive season and boost confidence all round," Gfk's Joe Staton told MNI.

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