October 15, 2024 16:18 GMT
CONSUMER CYCLICALS: LVMH (MCFP; Aa3/AA-) 3Q Results
CONSUMER CYCLICALS
Sector bellwether giving a big miss - not a good sign.
(all growth rates in organic terms/ex. FX);
- Core Fashion and Leather finally seeing weakness -5% vs. 1H +1% and drags YTD -1%.
- Still sees market share gains YTD
- Asia ex. Japan -16% (weaker than 1H -10%) and Japan not doing much to offset it now +20% (vs. 1H +44%).
- US was flat, Europe +2%. Asia is the largest region (29%) and hence drags group sales down -3% in the 3Q.
- Wines and Spirits were weaker than expected; -7% vs. c-2.5% and unlike fashion it is not rolling over hard comps (was falling last year as well).
- Champagne down reflecting post-covid normalisation
- Hennessy held back by weak Chinese demand but US returned to growth
- Perfume and Cosmetics +3% is tad weaker than consensus but continues to a growth driver.
- Watches and Jewelleries -4% is not far off expectations and in line with last qtr.
Outlook, as always, left broad with no numbers.
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