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CONSUMER CYCLICALS: Nissan (NSANY Baa3/BB+/BBB-): RV

CONSUMER CYCLICALS

Nissan spreads are around recent historical averages vs Ford. Yen strength is a potential headwind for Nissan going forward. 

  • Nissan 1Q25 results disappointed, with 0% EBIT margin and reduced FY guidance. It’s had issues with elevated inventory and cost inflation.
  • With Japanese monetary policy diverging from the US and upward pressure on the Yen, currency impact is another risk factor here. 54% of Nissan’s FY24 revenue came from North America, with just 16% from Japan.
  • Ford had its own disappointments at 2Q24 results with margin impacted by Warranty costs; both names have underperformed RENAUL since June (~20bp for Nissan).

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