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Consumer Prices Inch Lower for Second Consecutive Month

HUNGARY
  • Consumer prices in Hungary inched lower for the second consecutive month, falling slightly to 25.2% y/y (Est: 25.0%) from 25.4% prior. The monthly figure rose 0.8% (Est: 0.6%; Prior: 0.8%) while core inflation remained stubborn at 25.7% y/y.
    • Food prices decelerated for a third consecutive month, slowing to 42.6% in March, but the expiry of government efforts to contain staples inflation resulted in a surge higher for bread and eggs costs. On the month, the largest downside contributors were electricity & gas costs, durable goods and other goods, with energy costs falling at the fastest monthly pace since December.
  • EUR/HUF has eased off an intraday high of 376.76 following the inflation print and now trades close to flat on the day near the 376.00 level. 380.77 - the 20-day EMA - and 372.38 - the Mar 1 low - remain the key resistance and support levels to watch respectively.
  • As a reminder, Cabinet Minister Gergely Gulyas told reporters last Thursday that this week Hungary will decide whether to extend food price caps beyond the end of the month, with the decision likely to be influenced today’s inflation data.
  • The NBH will release the minutes of its March rate-setting meeting at 1300BST/1400CET.
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