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Consumption and Exports Drive GDP Surprise, GDI Still Significantly Softer

US DATA
  • Real GDP was surprisingly revised up to 2.0% (cons 1.4) in the third Q1 release from an initial 1.27%, after 2.57% in Q4.
  • Importantly, consumption played a sizeable role, revised up from 3.76% to 4.16% for an even stronger acceleration from the 1.0% of Q4 and the strongest since 1H21. It helped lift final domestic demand 3.51% (initially 3.32%) from 0.64%.
  • Net trade played an even larger role, led by exports now seen to have jumped 7.8% in Q1 (initially 5.2%) which surprisingly drags a larger net trade contribution of 0.58pp annualized from 0.42pp back in Q4.
  • Looking away from GDP, real GDI also showed upward revisions (-1.8% Q/Q from the initial -2.3%) but it continues to paint a significantly different picture to GDP. Average GDP and GDI together and growth increased just 0.1% annualized in Q1 (albeit much better than the -0.5% after the second Q1 release) after -0.4% in Q4.

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